Why did Obama win the 2012 presidential election?

Year 13 Politics Group decide

Many articles (USA Today, Real Clear Politics, CBS News for example) have been written about Obama's victory in 2012 but what really made the difference? 

Turnout

Here's an interesting article examining electoral turnout in the USA. According to the Centre for the Study of the American Electorate, America is ranked 139th in terms of voter participation out of 172 recognised democracies, and turnout in the 2008 election at 63% was considerably lower than it is in much of Europe, for example. Indeed, 2008's turnout was higher than it had been since 1960, with only 51.6% turning out for the 1996 elections. Some believe this is because of America's insistence on continuing with traditions such as the Tuesday date for elections (believed to have been chosen as it was most convenient for the agricultural community) and its refusal to embrace newer technologies to make voting more convenient, although this could be expensive. Jacob Soboroff from the "Why Tuesday?" Campaign responded to criticisms by saying,

"There is a far higher cost to the nation of having perennially low turnout than the monetary cost of having weekend elections." Does he have a point?

PS: More on the Tuesday issue here.

Gingrich wins South Carolina

The Republican primary race is now wide open following Newt Gingrich's shock win in South Carolina on Saturday. The scale of his victory, with 40% of the vote, 12% ahead of Romney, is particularly impressive. This suggests that the campaign will now go on for many months. Gingrich has appealed to Rick Santorum's supporters to join him as a conservative force against Romney but Santorum also has something to be cheerful about following the news that he actually won the Iowa Caucus after all. All eyes now move to Florida, who hold their primary on 31 January.

Why do you think Gingrich has done so well? Is this a "game-changer" or are Romney's prospects sound in the long run? How much is Obama enjoying all this? Please let us know.

PS: Here are some useful resources - a "battleground map" showing some of the key states for the 2012 election, and the CNN "delegate calculator"

Economist on Romney

There are some excellent articles in this week's Economist on Mitt Romney and the situation in the US Primaries this week.

• Here is the leading article assessing his credentials and whether he can be a credible opponent to Obama in November.
• Here is a whizzy interactive map showing the latest poll data for each state - Romney leads in most but sometimes not by much!
• Here is the Economists "Politics in America" blog with the latest thoughts and developments.

If you have any other recommendations from elsewhere on the web, please let us know.

Iowa Caucus Tonight!

Happy New Year everyone, and apologies for the lack of posts lately.  The official start of the primary season for the US Presidential race in 2012 could not be ignored, however.  120,000 Iowans will gather tonight to participate in caucuses to elect delegates for the Republican National Convention, which will take part in Florida this August. Their decisions will give some clue as to how the Republican candidates are faring, although it should be born in mind that John McCain, the eventual Republican nominee in 2008, came fourth in this caucus during the last election.  Polls suggest that Mitt Romney and Ron Paul will do well, although Ron Paul has particularly strong local appeal and this may not translate well across the rest of the country. It will be more interesting to see how the other "Anyone but Romney" candidates fare, particularly Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. We will find out later tonight! More information from the BBC here and from the official Iowa Caucus website here. If you have any comments or good links, please let us know.

Latest from the Republican Race

Here is an excellent blog post from Mark Mardell analysing the current state of the Republican candidates after their latest TV debate.  The debate focused on national security - Rick Perry and Herman Cain appeared to be like "schoolboys who had desperately mugged up on their homework" whereas Michele Bachman came across better than on previous occasions whilst Jon Huntsman was "masterful...for all the good it will do him". It is also worth reading to find out what "Mitt" Romney's real first name is!

There is some further good commentary on the state of the Republican race here (from our colleagues in Sutton) which refers to this article, and here, assessing some of the candidates not running in 2012 and their reasons why.

PS: Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Republican Debate

There was a lively debate between the Republican candidates at the Ronald Reagan Library in California last night. Eight candidates took part (Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum), but the debate was dominated by clashes between Mitt Romney, who had been considered to be the front runner for many months, and Rick Perry, the governor of Texas.  Perry only joined the race last month but has already made a considerable impact, particularly amongst the Tea Party movement.  Perry aggressively criticised many of Romney's policies as governor of Massachusets, but may have damaged his position with more moderate Republicans with his dismissive comments of social security as a "Ponzi scheme" (basically a dodgy financial arrangement) and a "monstrous lie".  It will be interesting to see what effect the debate has on their poll ratings, and watch out for the "Tea Party Debate" on Monday.

PS: Click the video above to watch them in action (after a brief ad), and here are reports and reaction from CNN and Fox News.

PPS: There is also some useful comment here from the New York Times

Tequila Party

Our politics student VD has spotted this fascinating article from the Independent about the "Tequila Party". This is a grassroots movement partly inspired by the rapid growth of the Tea Party. However, while the Tea Party is closely associated with the Republican movement, the Tequila Party prefers to be non-partisan. Its aim is not to create a third party in the traditional sense but instead reflect the rapidly growing influence of Hispanics in the USA. The population has grown by 43% in the last decade and now stands at 50 million - 16% of the total population (see graphic above - also courtesy of the Independent). Most Hispanics have traditionally voted Democrat but have become increasingly disillusioned with President Obama's promises to reform immigration laws which have so far not come to fruition - indeed he has actually accelerated deportation rates and tightened border security. It will be interesting to see how this movement develops, and how much influence it will have in the next election.

PS: Here is an American perspective on the Tea Party from National Public Radio, and here is the Tequila Party's website.

What is Michelle Bachmann talking about?

Michelle Bachmann used her Iowa roots to good advantage by formally declaring her candidacy in Waterlooville, Iowa where she was born. Being the first caucus, Iowa is a key state in the Republican nomination calendar. Bachmann appears to have invented herself as something called a "constitutional conservative". Read the Economist's Democracy in America blog for an attempt to decipher what she means.

Obama announces re-election campaign

Barack Obama has announced his re-election campaign. He says that he is announcing it early to allow the campaign to build. Here is his website's video announcement. What do you think, a good start? No other candidates, either Democrat or Republican, have yet announced. Here is the list of Republican contenders. Tim Pawlenty is the only one to have officially declared his intention to run. Which one would you back at this stage?