A Politics Student's view on the European Referendum

When David Cameron returned from the European Parliament clutching his ‘new deal for Britain’ it seemed to me that the concessions that had been granted were minor and didn’t address any of the real problems that the British people wanted resolving in the first place. The whole renegotiation process seemed to be a pre-arranged charade agreed by EU leaders which aimed to fool the UK public into rejecting Brexit and stay in a virtually unreformed European Union.

Mr. Cameron knows that anti-EU feeling in the country is growing so he has called for a referendum in just 4 months’ time on the 23^rd June 2016. It’s times like these where we will be seeing the establishment whip out any tactic to sway ordinary people in their favour. “EU exit could threaten jobs” and “sterling could lose another 20% of its value” are just two of the many headlines that will effectively scare Britons into voting ‘remain’ and not thoroughly thinking through the consequences of living under a superstate which is, in the words of the late Tony Benn, on board a ‘federal escalator, moving as we talk, going towards a federal objective we do not wish to reach.’.

The British people are faced with a once-in-a-lifetime decision – are we to be a self-governing nation or not? The so-called trading bloc has grown into much more than just an economic community, we are now dealing with a union which is inherently undemocratic and starves its member states of the power they once had. A fundamental principle of the UK’s constitution is the fact that parliament is sovereign. However, as a member of the EU, Britain must take all EU law over the statutory law passed in Westminster or the common law ruled by judges and it all, in effect, comes to nothing if the European Parliament passes a law that is conflicting.

No doubt, over the next few months we will be hearing endless claim and counterclaim from both sides of the argument, but in reality, no-one can know exactly what will happen if we leave the EU. Brexit will offer Britain a key to the rest of the world as we are relinquished from the harnesses of a powerful few at the top of the European food chain. I only hope that the British public will realise soon enough that we are a strong country, ready to break the status quo and once again trade with the whole world on our own terms, especially with the Commonwealth countries who we so shamefully abandoned when we joined the Common Market.  

The issue of ‘in or out’ rises above party politics and isn’t a question of whether you’re on the right or the left, it’s whether or not you believe in Britain and its people to govern themselves. If we do leave, whatever happens afterwards will be down to us to tackle as a sovereign state once more.

JW

 

Scottish independence - a struggle for power

With a week to go until the vote on the Scottish Referendum the polls couldn’t be closer. Over the past two years Alex Salmond has been trying to convince the people of Scotland to vote Yes on September 18^th. Both of my parents have lived in Scotland during their lives and currently I have other relatives living there, this is why the vote is very important to me and why I don’t think Scotland should become independent. At the moment it seems like the voters are split in half, those living in Edinburgh and Glasgow don’t seem to want independence whilst those living in the Highlands seem to be voting yes. The question is what are the risks?

At the start it didn’t seem as though it would be possible as only 32% wanted independence. The last set of polls to be published showed that 51% of people would vote yes whilst 49% would vote no, this is the first ever poll in the campaigns history in which the yes vote won. This poll triggered a decrease in the pound sterling as well as a reduction in the share prices of Standard Life, RBS and Lloyds Bank, all of which are Scottish or are in control of Scottish companies. This shows what could happen if Scotland were to vote yes on the 18^th.  Opinion polls are the only indication as to which way the vote will go, however the only poll that really matters is the one on the 18^th. Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling have both said that every vote will count as the results will be very close. It seems quite similar to the campaign for independence for the Canadian state of Quebec when the public of Quebec voted against independence by only 51%, this caused riots in the streets.

Currency has been the most talked about topic in this campaign as Alex Salmond wants a currency union with the UK. This means that the UK and Scotland would share the pound Sterling, the only problem being that George Osborne has rejected this and has stated that he will not let Scotland have the currency union. The Plan B for Salmond is to use the Sterling anyway as it is an international tradable currency and the UK can’t stop Scotland using it. A similar situation currently exists in Hong Kong which uses the American Dollar. The only problem is that without a currency union Scotland can’t have the assets of the Bank of England. This means that company’s like RBS and Standard Life won’t be able to survive in Scotland and will have to move to elsewhere in the UK. The concerning issue for the UK is that without the currency union Scotland will not contribute towards pay the debts from the banking crisis, leaving the UK to pay it all off. This crisis was partly caused by RBS and HBOS both of which are very large Scottish banks which were rescued by the Bank of England and Lloyds TSB respectively.

Despite the fact that Scotland says the government they get is not the government they voted for, if they become independent the UK government will substantially change. This is because the majority of the Scottish seats are held by Labour and without these 41 seats it would mean a higher chance of a Conservative government. Even though the UK would have an increased chance of a tory government, David Cameron is supporting the Better Together campaign by visiting Scotland instead of Prime Minister's Question time. All three parties in fact are going on a campaign across Scotland.

Of course Scotland wants to be in the EU and the UN however, it doesn’t seem as easy as it sounds. They will have to reapply, which is estimated to take 20+ years which is too long to be out of the EU and not receiving the benefits of being a member. This is a big risk for Scotland because if they do fail economically, then there isn’t a backup from the EU.

The North Sea Oil seems to be the focus point of the income for Scotland, with an estimated 120 Billion barrels left, it doesn’t seem as though it will contribute greatly to the economy as only 10-20% of the money made on oil is given to the government. As well as this oil is very volatile and it does not seem sensible to me if the country’s economy is based on a volatile source. Despite having Norway as a model for the country’s future it does not seem as though they will be able to achieve this without risk and possible failure. Oil is not something you can give an exact price or estimate how long it will last which is why Scotland shouldn’t be so reliant on it.

The problem with the proposed government is that although it will be able to change all of the laws that they deem unsuitable, for example the Bedroom tax, they won’t be able to have as big a budget as before. From the referendum document it seems as though Alex Salmond wants to spend his money on lowering and removing taxes as well as supporting small businesses and increasing pensions. He also believes the NHS can continue to be free as well as having free education. The sums don’t quite seem to add up and this white paper is just a vision, it does not provide any evidence of a sustainable country. The Scottish National Party can promise all they like but the fact is if there is a yes vote on the 18^th the SNP will disband. The reason being that they were solely created for the purpose of gaining independence for Scotland. This means that the SNP will not be responsible for managing the country and therefore can make irrational statements without suffering the consequences. The fact is that it just seems like Alex Salmond wants to put his name in the history books rather than see the consequences of independence.

Trident is another word which bring shivers to those living in Scotland and one of the strong argument for the yes campaign. The idea that the UK will always have a submarine with Trident nuclear missiles has always been a defensive tactic however, it seem as though it is very unpopular with the Scottish people and that they have to look after something they don’t want.  In this situation you have to ask, what will Scotland’s defence be?

Generation 2014 is the name of those voting who are 16 and 17 years old, for the first time in history they will be able to vote yes or no to the referendum. This may seem a good idea to enable the next generation to get involved as it will be their Independent Scotland that they will have to live in if there is a yes vote. To me it seems like Alex Salmond wanted to do this in order to get more yes voters as it would be easy to convince them that an independent Scotland is the way forward however, as the day comes closer it seems as though the youth do not want to see their country at risk when it does not have to be.

Overall I do not believe that an independent Scotland should be the way forward as there are too many unanswered questions by the leaders. It isn’t clearly set out and even the white paper doesn’t show all of the figures. To me it seems like there are too many risks involved with the independence and with the UK willing to devolve powers such as income tax it seems more sensible to vote no because the UK is better together.

SB

Downing Street Cats

Year 12 Politics students who have been studying the decline of cabinet government will be well aware that one proposed reason for this has been the increase in the PM's staff at No. 10. This has increased again this week with the
appointment of Larry, the official Downing Street cat, brought in to solve the growing rat problem in the old building. Larry spent 30 minutes in discussion with his new boss and, although the content of the talks remained private, Larry attacked a news correspondent soon after, which may hint at the Prime Minister's darker side. One thing is more certain however. At just four years old, Larry will likely serve at Downing Street for another 12 years plus so he will probably see off Mr Cameron and perhaps a couple more PMs before his retirement. See here for the history of Downing Street moggies.


PS: This is the first post delivered by iPad!

The ‘Brokeback Coalition’, is it for real?

When the Conservative party formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats after the May 2010 election failed to supply Tories with their much desired majority, I don’t think any of us quite expected the public ‘bromance’ between David Cameron and Nick Clegg which blossomed almost immediately afterwards. Despite casually insulting each other and their party’s policies throughout the election campaign, with Cameron once calling Clegg his ‘favourite joke’, especially on the three live television debates, Cameron and Clegg appeared to immediately put the past behind them and get stuck in on the small matter of running the country.

Although in the public interest this may be, some, including myself may perceive this as a desperate move by the power starved Lib Dem’s, to seize what may be their first and last opportunity to be in power and influence UK government policy. Is the friendship between our Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister built to last, or is it just a ‘friends with benefits’ deal, which is liable to break down when either party’s main principles are significantly compromised? So far, there is no sign of this happening, as the recent bill for the rise in the university tuition fee cap to £9000 has shown that the Lib Dem’s are more than willing to sacrifice their dignity and public support to stay on amicable terms with their coalition partners.

We will never know the exact words exchanged back in May 2010, when Cameron and Clegg sealed the deal and decided to commit to forming first coalition government in 70 years, but one can guess that Cameron’s suggestions were more than likely compromising to the majority of Lib Dem policies. Despite this, it is apparent that the Lib Dem’s are managing to ‘water down’ some of the more right wing policies of the original Conservative manifesto, such as raising the inheritance tax threshold to £1m, which has now been put back, and they will likely hold a referendum on switching to the AV voting system, which was previously opposed by the Tories.

Shunning the criticisms from former shadow home secretary David Davis that this ‘Brokeback Coalition’ is not in the public interest, Cameron and Clegg insist that the phrase does not capture the true spirit of the coalition which is “two separate parties led by two separate leaders, recognising that this country is facing some very difficult short-term challenges”. Only time will tell if this so called ‘sprit’ and enthusiasm for reigniting our economy and bettering our country as a whole can last a full parliamentary term, but so far things are certainly looking promising. There is no doubt in mind my however, that come the next election, whenever that may be, that the popularity of the Liberal Democrats will not compare to that seen in the run up to the 2010 election.

Many thanks to AW for this post.

Cameron and Lennon

There are two notable anniversaries today. It has been 5 years since David Cameron became the Tory leader, and this article shows some of the highlights of his time in charge. How well do you think he has done, and how significantly has he changed his party? Should he alone take responsibility for allowing the Conservatives back into office - albeit in a coalition?

It is also the 30th anniversary of the murder of John Lennon. He was shot outside his home in New York on 8 December 1980, and many people have vivid memories of where they were when they heard the news, because it was so sudden and shocking. This article includes a few of those memories, plus recollections of other sudden historical events, such as the assassination of JFK and the fall of the Berlin Wall. Tom Brook was the first British journalist to report from the scene of Lennon's murder, and he shares his recollections here. A few years ago, John Lennon was included in the shortlist of the 10 "Greatest Britons". Do you think he deserves that accolade? (You can see the programme, presented by Alan Davies, arguing the case for him here)

The Special Relationship

Another interesting Tony Blair drama on BBC2 on Saturday night (on iplayer) starring Michael Sheen, this time on the 'special relationship'. This is the name Britain tends to give to the relationship between the United States and Britain. From the US's point of view, this name is a little optimistic, considering Britain's competition - Mexico and Canada to name but a few. However, it is a subject that both historians and journalists find fascinating. It is a very interesting relationship; made only more so by the recent personal relationships between Blair and Clinton (the programme's subjects) and Blair and Bush. The programme is excellent to give you an overview of the issues that involved the US and the UK at the end of the 1990s, especially Kosovo. Peter Riddell, the Times journalist and author, has also written an excellent book which is very readable and informative on this topic.
What do you think the relationship is between Obama and Cameron? Is the relationship between the US and UK 'special'?

Big Society comes to Sutton

David Cameron's plans for a "Big Society" will include our borough of Sutton - the only London borough (and one of only four councils) to be included. The idea appears to be that communities will be given greater powers to run their own facilities, such as post offices, libraries and transport services. Sutton itself will concentrate on sustainable transport services and youth projects and hope to be "champions of green living"... Funding will come in part from dormant bank accounts, although it has been pointed out that costs would be reduced if much of the work was now done by enthusiastic volunteers rather than council workers and civil servants. There have been concerns that this is a front to mask spending cuts. Ed Milliband has described it as a "cynical attempt" to "dignify its cuts agenda by dressing up the withdrawal of support with the language of reinvigorating civic society". What do you think about all this - do you think the borough is a suitable place for these plans - and what would you change first if you had the chance?

When Cameron meets Obama...

Prime Minister David Cameron is to meet with President Obama today in Washington. Difficult items on the agenda - Afghanistan, BP and the economy. What have previous relationships between prime ministers and presidents been like and what is the nature of the special relationship? These will be the questions being asked by the media over the next few days and the BBC have created a short clip of video on the history of some of those relationships. The Telegraph also discussed the likelihood of Obama and Cameron getting on last year. However, the trip, and the history of the relationship, is due to be overshadowed by the ongoing concern over the release of Lockerbie bomber Al-Megrahi to Libya and what that had to do with BP. Cameron has now bowed to pressure to meet with four US senators to answer questions about the controversy. The Guardian discusses the issue.

Cameron hopes Facebook can help

David Cameron has asked Facebook's co-founder Mark Zuckerberg to help the government ask for suggestions from the public about what to do about the deficit. See the mutual congratulations here on Youtube. What do you think - a genuine attempt to engage with voters and young people or a cynical ploy to appear open to debate? Have a look at the Number 10 Downing Street website for more video selections from the government.

Caption Competition

Comments please! (Slightly dated photograph taken from here).

The Deal

Here is the full text of the deal made between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, plus a guide to the main policies of the coalition. Let us know your thoughts on this, and Clegg and Cameron's conference in the Downing Street garden yesterday.

New Cabinet (Updated)

Here is a list of the members of David Cameron's new cabinet What do you think of Nick Clegg as Deputy PM, or Theresa May as Home Secretary? How will George Osborne's finance team work? Place your comments here! Feel free to discuss the runners and riders for the next Labour Leader's post too.

PS: Here is another view from the BBC plus a list of policy plans.

Cameron is PM!

In the last couple of hours Gordon Brown has resigned as Prime Minister and David Cameron has accepted the Queen's request to form a new government - although there was some confusion about whether he had to kiss her hand to do so! Clearly this a historic moment - the return of a Conservative Prime Minister and the first full coalition government since the war. The key words in Cameron's somewhat low key speech were "difficult" and "together". He will have quite a task keeping disappointed Conservatives and Liberals on board (particularly as the LibDems haven't even officially approved this deal yet!) not to mention forming a set of policies under such massive financial pressures. He's going to have to fit a new baby into all of this as well!

Where does he go from here? As ever, add your comments below!

PS: Lots of photos of the historic events here