Sweden's Political Crisis

Sweden's prime minister Stefan Lofven

As a result of having Swedish family and therefore spending a lot of time in Sweden myself, I have found myself increasingly aware, and interested in, the current political crisis in Sweden. It is also extremely relevant to us in the UK with the upcoming general election, as British political analysts are afraid that the same situation could occur here.

After the Swedish general election in September 2014, no one party had the majority of the vote. The Prime Minister of the new government (and leader of the Social Democratic Party) had to create a hurried coalition of small, unpopular parties to be able to support the government. However, this coalition still only had 38% of support from MPs. The only party able to make a substantial difference to this and create a majority government was the Sweden Democrats who received 13% of the vote. However, the Sweden Democrats are an extremist, anti-immigration party, whose British equivalent would be UKIP. No party, therefore, was willing to cooperate with them and the only option was to form a minority government. Political analysts say that this could have worked, but…

On the 3^rd December 2014, a vote was held at parliament to vote in the budget. In Sweden, unlike Britain, each block of parties puts forward its own budget for a vote. Traditionally, though, the proposed budget of the current government is voted for. This time, however, the government did not have the majority support and the Sweden Democrats found themselves with the deciding vote. They voted for the opposition coalition party’s budget. This was because the Social Democratic-Green coalition’s budget did not comply with their aim to decrease immigration in Sweden by 90%.

The Prime Minister, Stefan Lofven, could not ignore this vote and the huge power for parties with more extreme views, as his government collapsed as a result. Therefore, in a hope to rectify the situation, a re-election has been called for the 22^nd March this year – the first mid-term election in Sweden since the 1950s. This sudden political instability in a country which has had very stable, predictable governments for decades has scared other European countries and warned them of the rise of populist parties. In particular, British politicians have become wary. Recently, a new act was passed stating that a new election can only be called if two-thirds of parliament agree to this. It is thought that the timing of a new election will never suit two-thirds of parliament and it will not be possible to hold a new election. The main parties are afraid that if the general election of this year goes badly for them, but well for UKIP, they will find themselves in the same position as Sweden. But with no way of getting out of it. 

AE

A year in coalition

Andrew Rawnsley presents a great Dispatches programme outlining the key events in politics over the last year. Fantastic for revision as it looks at the key reasons behind the coalition and the developments since. Watch it here for the next month on Channel 4OD and read Rawnsley's view of the most recent events in his Guardian column. A loveless marriage? What do you think?

Further footage of the year in coalition here on the BBC.

The Mumsnet Mafia

Two interesting articles with a similar parenting themes have appeared over the weekend. Bagehot in the Economist examines the phenomenon that all three of the party leaders, plus many of their significant advisers, all have children aged 9 or under. This is partly because they are all younger than their predecessors, generally in their early 40s, and have chosen to have their children later. All have committed to spend quality time with their families, and Bagehot asks how else they might be affected.
"The Tory party of ten years ago was slow to grasp the importance of social policies," he writes. "For today’s leadership, children are the “ultimate nudge”, he says, a reference to the Cameron camp’s zeal for “nudging” people into changing behaviour. At its simplest, parenthood exposes even the affluent middle classes to public services, from hospitals to day-care centres or libraries."

Meanwhile The Guardian has an interview with Justine Roberts, the founder of the Mumsnet parenting website. This site has attracted a huge amount of political attention and media interest, as its forthright contributors are seen as having considerable influence on political opinion, particularly with the current obsesssion with the "Squeezed middle" group. Gordon Brown's refusal to reveal his favourite biscuit in an online interview caused a brief controversy in 2009, but more recent issues, such as criticism of the recent EastEnders baby-swap plot, and the Riven Vincent case, show that the site's influence is continuing to grow. What's your opinion?

The ‘Brokeback Coalition’, is it for real?

When the Conservative party formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats after the May 2010 election failed to supply Tories with their much desired majority, I don’t think any of us quite expected the public ‘bromance’ between David Cameron and Nick Clegg which blossomed almost immediately afterwards. Despite casually insulting each other and their party’s policies throughout the election campaign, with Cameron once calling Clegg his ‘favourite joke’, especially on the three live television debates, Cameron and Clegg appeared to immediately put the past behind them and get stuck in on the small matter of running the country.

Although in the public interest this may be, some, including myself may perceive this as a desperate move by the power starved Lib Dem’s, to seize what may be their first and last opportunity to be in power and influence UK government policy. Is the friendship between our Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister built to last, or is it just a ‘friends with benefits’ deal, which is liable to break down when either party’s main principles are significantly compromised? So far, there is no sign of this happening, as the recent bill for the rise in the university tuition fee cap to £9000 has shown that the Lib Dem’s are more than willing to sacrifice their dignity and public support to stay on amicable terms with their coalition partners.

We will never know the exact words exchanged back in May 2010, when Cameron and Clegg sealed the deal and decided to commit to forming first coalition government in 70 years, but one can guess that Cameron’s suggestions were more than likely compromising to the majority of Lib Dem policies. Despite this, it is apparent that the Lib Dem’s are managing to ‘water down’ some of the more right wing policies of the original Conservative manifesto, such as raising the inheritance tax threshold to £1m, which has now been put back, and they will likely hold a referendum on switching to the AV voting system, which was previously opposed by the Tories.

Shunning the criticisms from former shadow home secretary David Davis that this ‘Brokeback Coalition’ is not in the public interest, Cameron and Clegg insist that the phrase does not capture the true spirit of the coalition which is “two separate parties led by two separate leaders, recognising that this country is facing some very difficult short-term challenges”. Only time will tell if this so called ‘sprit’ and enthusiasm for reigniting our economy and bettering our country as a whole can last a full parliamentary term, but so far things are certainly looking promising. There is no doubt in mind my however, that come the next election, whenever that may be, that the popularity of the Liberal Democrats will not compare to that seen in the run up to the 2010 election.

Many thanks to AW for this post.

Spending Review - What did you think?

So the spending review has finally been announced. £81 billion of cuts have been made, 490,000 public sector jobs are likely to be lost, departments will have to face an average of 19% cuts and the retirement age is going up to 66. On the other hand, the school budget has been protected, the NHS budget is to rise, and museum entry remains free. You can download the entire document (as a PDF file)here. What do you think? The "fairness" of the cuts has already caused some debate, but George Osborne has stated that "There is no Plan B". We would very much like to hear your opinions!

Spending Review

David Cameron has announced the results of the Defence Review today, and tomorrow will be the turn of the Spending Review for the other government departments. Where do you think the cuts will be made? This Guardian graphic gives you a helpful chance to make your own decisions.

PS: Here is an interesting comment (and graph) from Stephanie Flanders, noting that Government spending willl, depsite the cuts, return to occupying the same share of the economy in 2014 as it did 3 years ago, because the pressure on government expenditure is so great.

The Curse of the Number Two

There is a good article on the BBC website today about Deputy Prime Ministers, questioning why so few of them go on to be successful PMs. Anthony Eden (Top picture) was a loyal Deputy PM to Winston Churchill for many years but, when he succeeded Churchill in 1955, his brief time in office was plagued by disasters such as the Suez Crisis in 1956. Lord Hattersley's view of DPMs is that they are not really Deputy Leaders, but "failed leaders" - unable to win the top spot for themselves. However, Nick Clegg's position, as part of a coalition, is a little different, and perhaps Clement Attlee (Bottom picture), Labour DPM to Churchill's PM during Britain's last coalition during World War 2 is a better example. According to the political historian Peter Hennessey, he had very little charisma or presence, and came across as a "benign gerbil", and yet he went on to become a widely respected PM responsible for the creation of the NHS after the war. Will Clegg be able to follow this model? Only time will tell.

PS: Clegg has come under plenty of pressure after his first performance at Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday. He declared the Iraq War to be "illegal" despite the fact it had had the full support of the Conservatives, who are of course now his coalition partners. More details here.
PPS: Clegg's debut at PMQs was certainly historic. It was the first time a Liberal Leader had stood at the despatch box since Lloyd George, over 90 years ago...

Big Society comes to Sutton

David Cameron's plans for a "Big Society" will include our borough of Sutton - the only London borough (and one of only four councils) to be included. The idea appears to be that communities will be given greater powers to run their own facilities, such as post offices, libraries and transport services. Sutton itself will concentrate on sustainable transport services and youth projects and hope to be "champions of green living"... Funding will come in part from dormant bank accounts, although it has been pointed out that costs would be reduced if much of the work was now done by enthusiastic volunteers rather than council workers and civil servants. There have been concerns that this is a front to mask spending cuts. Ed Milliband has described it as a "cynical attempt" to "dignify its cuts agenda by dressing up the withdrawal of support with the language of reinvigorating civic society". What do you think about all this - do you think the borough is a suitable place for these plans - and what would you change first if you had the chance?

Brief History of Referendums

Here is a helpful 2 minute video from the BBC on Britain's previous referendums since 1973. Ed Milliband, Peter Bottomley and Simon Hughes then debate the implications and mechanics of the proposed referendum on AV here.

PS: Here is more from Nick Clegg on his proposals for Constitutional Reform

Budget Calculator

Today is Budget Day, and George Osborne will reveal the Coalition's latest plans to cut the deficit. The BBC have produced this Budget Calculator to give you the chance to run the Treasury and make your own cuts. What would you cut, and why? Let us know your thoughts.

The Economist this week

A definite must-read this week as there are a number of excellent articles which will help with the exams. First of all, there is analysis of the new coalition government with comparisons of the new leaders in the British section. Also, there is a good comparison of the parties' promises on political reform as well as thoughts on the Labour Party's leadership contest. On the USA, there are articles on Elena Kagan, the climate-change bill and Utah's primary which has resulted in another moderate Republican being dropped by the party.

Fixed term parliaments and 55% rules

Opposition is growing to the coalition's fixed parliaments proposals. Keep an eye on this developing story.

The Deal

Here is the full text of the deal made between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, plus a guide to the main policies of the coalition. Let us know your thoughts on this, and Clegg and Cameron's conference in the Downing Street garden yesterday.

New Cabinet (Updated)

Here is a list of the members of David Cameron's new cabinet What do you think of Nick Clegg as Deputy PM, or Theresa May as Home Secretary? How will George Osborne's finance team work? Place your comments here! Feel free to discuss the runners and riders for the next Labour Leader's post too.

PS: Here is another view from the BBC plus a list of policy plans.

All change!

A few hours ago a LibDem-Tory coalition seemed inevitable. Now Gordon Brown has announced his intention to resign, the Labour Party is making increasingly generous advances towards Nick Clegg and his team and the Conservatives are responding by offering full coalition and a referendum on voting reform. Where is this going to go? Who will replace Gordon Brown? Michael Gove has just pointed out that this could lead to the second "unelected" Labour Prime Minister in a row, which I suspect will become a common theme for the Conservative Party and their allies in the press if a Lib/Lab pact comes to fruition. Please add your comments below!

PS: Thanks for all your comments so far. Keep them coming!

10 May 1940

Today marks the seventieth anniversary of when Winston Churchill took charge of the government following the resignation of Neville Chamberlain and successfully led a coalition that had been on the point of collapse. The event was significant enough for Time Magazine to name it one of the "80 Days that Changed the World". As they debate the nature of the next coalition government, our politicians should certainly take note of his experiences...