How Wrong Can You Be?

The twentieth century saw technological, political and social change at a rate far quicker than ever before. Whilst in hindsight, some of the events and developments may today appear to have been inevitable; history has shown that on many occasions, influential and powerful leaders and experts often had little idea of just how drastically their world was to change.

Politically, the United Kingdom, and more widely, the world, would now be a very different place had the predictions of Margaret Thatcher and Neville Chamberlain been correct. Speaking in 1974, Thatcher declared that it would be “years -- not in my time -- before a woman will become Prime Minister”. In fact it would be only five years, and she would be in office – a momentous, although often controversial premiership that has shaped the way much of the British public views politics. On the 30th September 1938, Neville Chamberlain, the then Prime Minister, made a statement, which was to be completely wrong little less than a year later when Britain declared war on Germany. Showing just how unexpected war was, he boldly declared that he believed it “is peace for our time”. Unfortunately, Britain found itself fighting arguably the world’s most tyrannical ruler, Adolf Hitler.

Political change, although often drastic, is often much harder to pre-empt and a major event can happen without much prior warning. In many ways, it is the inaccurate social and technological predictions that are most telling about how rapidly change was taking place. “We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out” was the verdict on the Beatles given by Decca Recording Co. Without realising, they had just rejected the biggest boy band of all time.

In regards to computing, computer manufacturer, IBM, has seriously underestimated the role that computers were to play in modern life not only once, but twice. In 1943, the company’s chairman, Thomas Watson said; “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers". This was followed in 1968 with, "But what ... is it good for?" by an engineer in regards to the microchip – a device heralded by Robert Winston as one of the ten biggest breakthroughs on his programme, ‘How Science Changed Our World’. It is yet to be seen whether our present day anticipation of the future will be any more accurate, but similar quotations and thoughts that have already been proven to be incorrect can be viewed on http://www.thatsweird.net/facts13.shtm.

Many thanks to SF for this post.

A-Level Blacklists

One of the most difficult decisions to make: choosing your A-Level subjects. Now after all of that meticulous planning, you find out that you have fallen into the trap of taking...a Blacklisted A-Level. These are subjects that some universities consider to be of "more limited suitability". Set aside are 13 subjects including sociology, psychology, business studies and archaeology which are less favourable than traditional choices.

What is to become of those who have chosen one of these fateful few? Well rest-assured, they are acceptable in some departments, presumably the ones you are hoping to apply to. The Government is planning to restrict the growth of these subject, arguing that they could potentially damage students' chances of a University place also calling for lists to be published. Considering the tution fee rises and influx of applicants, it will be more difficult than ever to have a University place.

I always knew thirteen was unlucky.

PS: Here is further reading on the subject from the BBC and the Daily Mail.

PPS: The image is from Dongguan in China - there are 1200 students in the hall!

Many thanks to JN for this post.

Blog Competition and BBC Style Guide

Many thanks to those students who entered the blog competition this year. The entries were few in number but high in quality! We will publish them shortly, and were pleased that Years 10, 12 and 13 were all represented. We would like to run the competition again, but acknowledge that maybe the Christmas period wasn't the most convenient time. If you have any suggestions on when we should do this, please let us know - maybe the summer?

PS: You may find this writing style guide from the BBC quite helpful for History, Politics or Critical Thinking essays. It has plenty of tips (mainly for journalists) on how to use words clearly and accurately. Here are some examples:
"Historic is a popular word with journalists. It is nice to think that the events we are describing will resonate down the decades, but who are we to judge? Use with great care, and never confuse with historical, which means belonging to history."

"Unique has a unique meaning, and it is that there is only one of something (uni as in unicycle, unicorn or unisex). Nothing can be almost unique.You should be saying distinctive or unusual."

"Draconian is much overused, usually by people with no idea who Draco was. (If asked, say he was an Athenian judge who ruled that the penalty for almost everything should be death.) Try severe or harsh instead."

By-election

A victory for Labour? Relief for the Lib Dems? Concern for the Conservatives? What do you think the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election last night shows and what do you think it will mean for the May elections?
Have a look at the reporting of the result on the BBC, Guardian and Telegraph (also a nice feature on most influential politicians), and make up your own mind.

Emmett Sullivan

Dr Emmett Sullivan will be speaking today at the HP Society in the library at 1.15. He is a Senior Teaching Fellow at Royal Holloway, which not only has the largest history department in the University of London, but was also Miss D'Souza's old college! He will be speaking about what it's like to study History at university. All are welcome to attend. Dr Sullivan will be returning to Nonsuch on 25 January to speak about the events which led to the collapse of the USSR.

Political rhetoric?

The recent shooting of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords that left 6 dead and Giffords fighting for her life with a bullet through her head has led to a debate as to whether it is political rhetoric that has led to this tragedy. Certainly Sarah Palin's map of 'targets' has been highly publicised although now many conservatives are defending themselves by accusing Democrats of exploiting the event to attack them. Make up your own mind with a range of opinions here on the BBC and Mark Mardell's blog and a range of articles on CNN including Rush Limbaugh's defence.

Christmas Blog Writing Competition

Last chance to take part in the blog writing competition! It's open to anyone in Years 10 - 13 and can be on any political or historical subject. The deadline is the end of school on Monday. We would love to read your entries!

Twelfth Night - or is it?

Happy Twelfth Night! Or is it the Twelfth Day of Christmas? Or neither? It's definitely Epiphany (or 3 Kings Day) but there is some confusion about whether we should traditionally take down our Christmas decorations today or yesterday. Here's is the Guardian's take on this, and here are the thoughts of the editor of History Today. One tradition associated with the day was the baking of a cake with a single bean inside it. Whoever got the bean was king for the day, and everybody had to do what he or she said. Nonsuch HP approves of any tradition to do with cakes, so get baking everybody!

Elizabeth I and her Government

There are some useful websites available commenting on how Elizabeth governed her country and how successful she was. www.elizabethi.org has a good collection of useful material plus some good reading suggestions. Here is a useful summary of how the council was established, and here is an argument from Natalie Mears suggesting that the council wasn't as influential as was first thought. (Here is an overview of the book, plus references to other articles that may be helpful) Finally, here is a more historiographical account from John Guy, assessing differing historians' opinions on Elizabeth's political approach, which is an excellent source for interpretations.

Happy New Year

Happy New Year to all of our readers! We hope you have had a relaxing break and are ready for 2011. Don't forget that the closing date for the blog, castle and film competition is next Monday 10 January. Details can be found here.